Unlocking Credit in Nigeria’s Informal Economy
Introduction: Why Credit Still Misses Millions
Over 80% of Nigeria’s workforce operates outside the formal sector. That’s millions of traders, gig workers, artisans, and market sellers — fueling the economy with daily activity but invisible to banks. Why? Traditional credit models rely on pay slips, fixed addresses, collateral, and formal records. But these don’t exist for most people in Nigeria’s informal economy.
At Mathesis, we believe this isn’t a data problem — it’s a system problem. And solving it demands new tools, not just new policies. AI-powered credit scoring and alternative data can unlock the future of inclusive finance. Here’s how we make that happen — and how banks, fintechs, and data partners can lead the way.
Rethinking Credit with Alternative Data
Traditional credit systems were built for salaried workers with pay slips, bank accounts, and formal addresses. That model excludes millions. But financial behavior doesn’t only live in banks — it lives in phone usage, rent payments, utility bills, and informal transactions. Every mobile top-up, electricity payment, or market stall sale leaves behind a data footprint. This alternative data, when structured and analyzed correctly, becomes a powerful indicator of creditworthiness.
Banks and fintechs that ignore this miss out. Those that embrace it can unlock entirely new markets.
What counts as alternative data?
- Mobile Airtime Top-Ups - Frequency and consistency signal spending power and income regularity, especially in prepaid economies.
- Mobile Money Transactions - Tracks inflows and outflows, peer-to-peer transfers, and digital wallet activity — revealing cash flow patterns.
- Utility Payments (Electricity, Water, Internet) - On-time payments reflect financial discipline and budget reliability
- Rent Payments - Long-term rent records indicate stability, monthly earning capacity, and responsible behavior over time.
- Retail and Merchant Payments - POS transactions, e-commerce purchases, and vendor payments reveal purchasing patterns and financial activity.
- Transport and Mobility Data - Regular rides (e.g., Okada, ride-hailing apps) can correlate with work routines and economic participation.
- Airtime/Data Credit Repayments - Micro-credit for airtime/data, when repaid consistently, builds a repayment behavior profile.
Why this matters
Alternative data makes the invisible visible. It builds credit profiles for people with no formal records, revealing financial discipline through everyday behavior — from rent and utility payments to mobile money usage. These real-world signals are harder to manipulate than paperwork and offer a stronger foundation for trust. For lenders, this means reduced risk, access to new markets, and the ability to scale inclusive credit products with speed and precision.
How AI Translates Behavior Into Creditworthiness
Traditional scoring systems stop where data is thin. AI doesn’t. Machine learning models can analyze patterns in alternative data — from payment behavior to mobile usage — and generate credit signals with surprising accuracy. These systems don’t require bank statements or bureau reports. They learn from behavior, adapt to local realities, and make decisions at scale.
At Mathesis, we build AI infrastructure tailored to the dynamics of informal economies — fast, flexible, and built for Africa.
Why this matters
AI sees what legacy models can’t. It translates daily behavior into predictive credit insights, enabling real-time decisions even in data-scarce environments. That means faster loan approvals, smarter risk assessment, and scalable underwriting models designed for millions of informal economy participants — not just the formally employed.
What Banks, FinTechs, and Data Partners Stand to Gain
Unlocking credit in the informal economy isn’t just an inclusion play — it’s a growth strategy. The institutions that harness alternative data and AI today won’t just serve the underserved — they’ll outpace competitors in emerging markets. This is a chance to lead, expand market share, and build products designed for the way people actually live and earn. Here's how each player in the ecosystem can benefit — starting now.
Banks & Financial Institutions
- Expand lending beyond the formal sector - Tap into millions of creditworthy individuals outside payroll systems.
- Lower default rates with behavior-based insights - Replace guesswork with real-world data signals to predict risk more accurately.
- Launch microloan products at scale - Serve market women, artisans, and gig workers profitably — and at speed.
- Strengthen portfolio resilience - Diversify exposure by lending across broader economic segments.
FinTechs
- Outperform legacy lenders with smarter underwriting - Use AI-driven models built on alternative data to approve more, with less risk.
- Accelerate time-to-market for credit products - Leverage real-time behavioral scoring to shorten approval cycles
- Acquire high-intent customers in underserved markets - Offer relevant credit products to first-time borrowers ready to grow.
- Drive product innovation with data - Build adaptive products that evolve with user behavior.
Data Partners (Telcos, Landlords, Utilities)
- Monetize existing user data ethically - Generate new revenue by powering lending decisions without becoming a lender.
- Fuel nationwide financial inclusion - Help unlock credit for customers while deepening ecosystem value.
- Position your platform as an economic catalyst - Partner with fintechs and banks to create new pathways to financial empowerment.
- Strengthen customer retention - Become part of the credit journey — and deepen long term loyalty.
Conclusion: Inclusion Is a Competitive Advantage
The informal economy isn’t a risk — it’s an opportunity hiding in plain sight. With the right data and AI tools, lenders can see beyond the paperwork and into real financial behavior. This isn’t about charity. It’s about building smarter credit systems, reaching new customers, and leading in high-growth markets.
At Mathesis, we make this possible. If you're ready to unlock lending at scale — and win in the markets others overlook — let's build it together.
Partner with us today
Introduction: Why Credit Still Misses Millions
Over 80% of Nigeria’s workforce operates outside the formal sector. That’s millions of traders, gig workers, artisans, and market sellers — fueling the economy with daily activity but invisible to banks. Why? Traditional credit models rely on pay slips, fixed addresses, collateral, and formal records. But these don’t exist for most people in Nigeria’s informal economy.
At Mathesis, we believe this isn’t a data problem — it’s a system problem. And solving it demands new tools, not just new policies. AI-powered credit scoring and alternative data can unlock the future of inclusive finance. Here’s how we make that happen — and how banks, fintechs, and data partners can lead the way.
Rethinking Credit with Alternative Data
Traditional credit systems were built for salaried workers with pay slips, bank accounts, and formal addresses. That model excludes millions. But financial behavior doesn’t only live in banks — it lives in phone usage, rent payments, utility bills, and informal transactions. Every mobile top-up, electricity payment, or market stall sale leaves behind a data footprint. This alternative data, when structured and analyzed correctly, becomes a powerful indicator of creditworthiness.
Banks and fintechs that ignore this miss out. Those that embrace it can unlock entirely new markets.
What counts as alternative data?
- Mobile Airtime Top-Ups - Frequency and consistency signal spending power and income regularity, especially in prepaid economies.
- Mobile Money Transactions - Tracks inflows and outflows, peer-to-peer transfers, and digital wallet activity — revealing cash flow patterns.
- Utility Payments (Electricity, Water, Internet) - On-time payments reflect financial discipline and budget reliability
- Rent Payments - Long-term rent records indicate stability, monthly earning capacity, and responsible behavior over time.
- Retail and Merchant Payments - POS transactions, e-commerce purchases, and vendor payments reveal purchasing patterns and financial activity.
- Transport and Mobility Data - Regular rides (e.g., Okada, ride-hailing apps) can correlate with work routines and economic participation.
- Airtime/Data Credit Repayments - Micro-credit for airtime/data, when repaid consistently, builds a repayment behavior profile.
Why this matters
Alternative data makes the invisible visible. It builds credit profiles for people with no formal records, revealing financial discipline through everyday behavior — from rent and utility payments to mobile money usage. These real-world signals are harder to manipulate than paperwork and offer a stronger foundation for trust. For lenders, this means reduced risk, access to new markets, and the ability to scale inclusive credit products with speed and precision.
How AI Translates Behavior Into Creditworthiness
Traditional scoring systems stop where data is thin. AI doesn’t. Machine learning models can analyze patterns in alternative data — from payment behavior to mobile usage — and generate credit signals with surprising accuracy. These systems don’t require bank statements or bureau reports. They learn from behavior, adapt to local realities, and make decisions at scale.
At Mathesis, we build AI infrastructure tailored to the dynamics of informal economies — fast, flexible, and built for Africa.
Why this matters
AI sees what legacy models can’t. It translates daily behavior into predictive credit insights, enabling real-time decisions even in data-scarce environments. That means faster loan approvals, smarter risk assessment, and scalable underwriting models designed for millions of informal economy participants — not just the formally employed.
What Banks, FinTechs, and Data Partners Stand to Gain
Unlocking credit in the informal economy isn’t just an inclusion play — it’s a growth strategy. The institutions that harness alternative data and AI today won’t just serve the underserved — they’ll outpace competitors in emerging markets. This is a chance to lead, expand market share, and build products designed for the way people actually live and earn. Here's how each player in the ecosystem can benefit — starting now.
Banks & Financial Institutions
- Expand lending beyond the formal sector - Tap into millions of creditworthy individuals outside payroll systems.
- Lower default rates with behavior-based insights - Replace guesswork with real-world data signals to predict risk more accurately.
- Launch microloan products at scale - Serve market women, artisans, and gig workers profitably — and at speed.
- Strengthen portfolio resilience - Diversify exposure by lending across broader economic segments.
FinTechs
- Outperform legacy lenders with smarter underwriting - Use AI-driven models built on alternative data to approve more, with less risk.
- Accelerate time-to-market for credit products - Leverage real-time behavioral scoring to shorten approval cycles
- Acquire high-intent customers in underserved markets - Offer relevant credit products to first-time borrowers ready to grow.
- Drive product innovation with data - Build adaptive products that evolve with user behavior.
Data Partners (Telcos, Landlords, Utilities)
- Monetize existing user data ethically - Generate new revenue by powering lending decisions without becoming a lender.
- Fuel nationwide financial inclusion - Help unlock credit for customers while deepening ecosystem value.
- Position your platform as an economic catalyst - Partner with fintechs and banks to create new pathways to financial empowerment.
- Strengthen customer retention - Become part of the credit journey — and deepen long term loyalty.
Conclusion: Inclusion Is a Competitive Advantage
The informal economy isn’t a risk — it’s an opportunity hiding in plain sight. With the right data and AI tools, lenders can see beyond the paperwork and into real financial behavior. This isn’t about charity. It’s about building smarter credit systems, reaching new customers, and leading in high-growth markets.
At Mathesis, we make this possible. If you're ready to unlock lending at scale — and win in the markets others overlook — let's build it together.
Partner with us today